GTM-1771 Cohort Impact Checkpoint
Did our outreach move the needle? Before vs after, week 2 snapshot, 2026-05-08.
Cohort size
16
creators contacted since Apr 27
Attributed events / day
+680%
11.17/d after vs 1.43/d before
Unique users / day
+988%
7.75/d after vs 0.71/d before
The two windows
| Window |
Range |
Days |
Description |
| Before | 2026-04-13 to 2026-04-26 | 14 | Pre-outreach. Cohort untouched, organic only. |
| After | 2026-04-27 to 2026-05-08 | 12 | Outreach started, messages and tracking links sent. |
Aggregate signal: did the cohort move?
| Metric |
Before |
After |
Per-day before |
Per-day after |
Lift per day |
| Everflow events |
20 |
134 |
1.43 |
11.17 |
+680% |
| Unique attributed users |
10 |
93 |
0.71 |
7.75 |
+988% |
| Paid conversions |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0.17 |
new |
| Payment USD |
$0 |
$33.00 |
$0 |
$2.75 |
new |
| Affiliate payout USD |
$0 |
$22.52 |
$0 |
$1.88 |
new |
Source: BigQuery dbt model d2c_prod_dbt_stxt_analytics.int_everflow_attribution. Cohort filtered by 16 creator affiliate_ids. Scrub events excluded.
Voice calls trajectory (cohort 30d-rolling)
Side signal independent of Everflow. We did not have CRM snapshots before Apr 28, so cannot do a clean before vs after on calls. What we have is the trend during the outreach period:
| Snapshot date |
Cohort calls (30d) |
Cohort minutes (30d) |
| 2026-04-30 (start of outreach period reading) | 187 | 175.6 |
| 2026-05-06 (latest) | 251 | 220.2 |
| Change over 6 days | +34% | +25% |
Where the signal comes from: per-creator
Same data sliced by creator. Almost all of the lift comes from one person.
Creators with positive movement after outreach
| Creator |
Before events |
After events |
After paid |
After payment |
Status |
| Princess Frenxh | 8 | 119 | 1 | $8.00 | posted |
| Reese | 0 | 5 | 1 | $25.00 | posted |
| Kiki D'Aire | 0 | 7 | 0 | $0 | discussing |
Creators that went down or stayed flat
| Creator |
Before events |
After events |
Status |
| Brody Jean | 10 | 3 | posted |
| Yeyeloba | 2 | 0 | discussing |
Creators with zero attributable activity (any window)
11 of 16 creators in the cohort did not produce any Everflow attribution events during the entire 4-week observation window:
| Alexis Mucci | Ana Nello | Ashley Belle | Beatriz Amma |
| Cowgirl J | Janna Moller | Miss Lexa | Nova Frog |
| PureOceanEyes | Rebecca J | Tayuh Lynn | |
Possible causes: they have not posted yet, they posted but did not use our tracking link, or attribution is missing for some affids. Action item: direct ask before next checkpoint.
Verdict
Yes, there is positive movement. Aggregate cohort attribution went up sharply after outreach started: events per day +680%, unique users per day +988%, two paid conversions appeared (zero before), $33 in revenue. Voice calls grew +34% in 30d-rolling sum over 6 days.
But the signal is concentrated in 2 of 16 creators. Princess Frenxh drives 89% of after-events. Reese contributed the only meaningful paid conversion. 11 of 16 creators show zero activity in any window. The aggregate lift is real, but our outreach is not yet activating most of the cohort.
What to do before next checkpoint (2026-05-15)
- Ask the 11 silent creators directly: did you post? where? what link did you use? Either get them measurable or remove from active cohort.
- Switch token-revenue source to Neon via GitHub Actions runner where NEON_DATABASE_URL is available. BigQuery oneoff_purchased was incomplete and was excluded from this checkpoint.
- Watch whether Princess Frenxh momentum sustains and whether others convert to paid. Top-of-funnel moved, paid conversions trail by days to weeks.
Caveats
- One creator carries the aggregate. Princess Frenxh is 89% of after-window events. Without her, aggregate before-vs-after lift is much smaller. Treat the headline number directionally.
- Calls baseline missing. CRM snapshots started Apr 28, so we cannot do a clean before-vs-after on voice calls. Trajectory only.
- Token revenue not in this checkpoint. BigQuery oneoff_purchased is materially incomplete vs Neon creator_dashboard. Will switch source for next run.
- Small absolute volume. 16-creator cohort, 4-week window. First checkpoint is directional, not statistical.
Generated 2026-05-08. Cohort = 16 creators with last_contact_date >= 2026-04-27 in synthetic-turing/creator-crm. Source: BigQuery dbt int_everflow_attribution + creator-crm card history snapshots.